How SpaceX Wealth, Off-Market Transactions and Limited Inventory Are Reshaping South Bay Luxury Real Estate
By Ed Kaminsky | Rocket Bay | Week 8
If 20% over market value got your attention, let's talk about whether your home could draw that kind of offer.
Imagine having $10 million, $20 million or even $40 million to spend on a home.
You know exactly where you want to live. You have a specific neighborhood in mind, a preferred street, a certain amount of land, perhaps an ocean view, and a list of architectural features and amenities you want.
You have the financial resources to purchase almost anything.
But when you start looking, something surprising happens.
You can't find the home you want.
That's a challenge I'm seeing in the South Bay luxury market, and it's particularly interesting as buyers with ties to SpaceX and other significant wealth-creating events look for homes in Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach and the Palos Verdes Peninsula.
Our market has always had limited inventory. When financially capable buyers become highly selective about what they're willing to purchase, that shortage becomes even more apparent.
There are really three choices: wait for the right property to be listed, purchase something and build or remodel it, or go out and find a home that isn't currently for sale.
More buyers are exploring that third option.
Are SpaceX Buyers Actually Looking for Off-Market Properties?
Yes.
I'm personally seeing buyers connected to SpaceX who are searching for homes that aren't listed on the Multiple Listing Service.
But there's an important distinction to make.
Not every SpaceX-connected buyer is shopping for the same type of property.
The financial circumstances of these shareholders and employees vary tremendously. Some have equity interests potentially worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. Others may have interests worth millions or tens of millions.
Their budgets and housing preferences are equally different.
We are seeing interest across the South Bay, with particular attention on Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and Palos Verdes Estates.
The buyer who wants a single-family home in an established neighborhood is looking for something very different from a buyer who wants an extraordinary Strand property or a large estate with privacy and views.
The challenge is that when buyers begin checking every box on their wish list, there may be nothing publicly available that meets their requirements.
That's when the off-market search begins.
Does Every Agent Really Have a SpaceX Buyer?
This is one of the more interesting things happening in our marketplace.
SpaceX has become part of the conversation among agents trying to locate new housing inventory.
Some brokers genuinely represent qualified buyers actively seeking homes.
Others may be using the suggestion of SpaceX-related demand as a way to start a conversation with a homeowner.
An agent might call 200 homeowners during a week trying to uncover a potential listing. Even if that agent represents a real buyer, the buyer obviously isn't going to be interested in all 200 homes.
There's nothing unusual about agents prospecting for business. But homeowners shouldn't mistake every unsolicited inquiry for evidence that a qualified buyer is ready to pay an extraordinary price for their specific property.
At the same time, we shouldn't dismiss the underlying trend.
There are buyers with significant financial resources who want homes that simply aren't on the market.
Why Would Someone Sell a Home Privately?
People sometimes assume that off-market properties are distressed properties or secret bargains.
That couldn't be further from the truth.
I've represented buyers, sellers and, where appropriately arranged and disclosed, both sides in private transactions throughout my career.
There are several reasons homeowners choose this approach.
1. Privacy
I've sold homes for professional athletes who wanted to keep their properties out of the public eye.
They didn't want photographs of their private residences distributed broadly, or large numbers of strangers walking through their homes.
But they still wanted the best possible financial result.
A carefully managed private marketing strategy can sometimes accomplish both objectives.
2. Timing
Sometimes a seller is preparing to put a property on the market, but isn't quite ready.
Perhaps improvements are underway, or the owners are working through relocation plans.
Other agents or buyers hear that the property may become available, and an offer arrives before the home is officially listed.
If the terms are attractive enough, the parties may complete the transaction privately.
3. An Exceptional Price
Other homeowners have no intention of selling at current market prices.
They love their homes. They aren't under pressure to move. But they have a number in mind that would change their plans.
I've encountered homeowners who would consider selling for 20% to 30% above what they believe their home would otherwise bring.
Of course, being willing to sell at that number doesn't mean someone will actually pay it.
Despite the stories circulating about enormous new wealth, we aren't routinely seeing buyers pay twice what a home is worth.
There have been exceptional transactions, but they remain exceptions.
A Hermosa Beach Strand Sale That Illustrates the Opportunity
One transaction that caught my attention took place in the 700 block of the Strand in Hermosa Beach.
The home sold for $8.5 million in 2022.
Three years later, in 2025, the property sold again for $13.5 million.
That's a $5 million increase, approximately 59%, in just three years.
From what I could determine, the house was essentially identical to what it had been in 2022.
The purchaser wasn't a SpaceX buyer. However, the buyer had experienced a liquidity event and wanted that particular location.
In my professional opinion, the buyer paid approximately 20% to 25% more than what I believed the property would otherwise have commanded in the market at the time.
That premium was not necessarily the reason for the entire increase between the two sales. Market conditions may also have changed during those three years.
But it demonstrates something important.
For certain financially capable buyers, the property itself is worth more to them than it may be to the broader market.
If a home checks every important box, that buyer may be willing to pay more to secure it.
This doesn't guarantee that every South Bay homeowner can command an extraordinary premium.
It does, however, help explain why some homeowners are approached privately and why some buyers are prepared to make unusually attractive offers.
What if the Home Doesn't Exist Yet?
One of my favorite approaches to off-market real estate involves connecting buyers with builders before a new home has even been constructed.
Here's how it can work.
I may know a builder who has acquired a parcel of land in Manhattan Beach with plans to construct a speculative home.
At the same time, I may be working with a buyer who wants new construction but can't find a property that fits their needs.
Instead of waiting until the builder completes the project, I bring the two parties together.
We discuss what the builder intends to create and what the buyer would ideally like.
Sometimes there's an opportunity for collaboration.
The buyer may help shape the floor plan or select materials and finishes. The builder has the benefit of knowing there's an interested purchaser before finishing the project.
Over the past year, I've participated in several of these arrangements in Manhattan Beach's Sand and Tree Sections.
They've been excellent examples of creating a win-win situation.
The builder secures a buyer, while the buyer gets a home more closely aligned with their personal preferences.
Naturally, these arrangements need appropriate contractual protections, construction specifications and clear expectations.
But the larger lesson is that buyers don't always need to wait for their dream home to be built by someone else.
Sometimes they can become part of the process before construction begins.
How Do You Find a Home That Isn't Listed?
The first thing I tell buyers is that who they work with matters.
There are agents who have substantial off-market access because they are deeply involved in their local marketplace.
They transact frequently, maintain relationships with homeowners, and communicate regularly with other brokers who may know about future listings.
Many real estate companies maintain private listing networks.
At eXp Realty, we also have access to our brokerage's private exclusive inventory. But the value of finding off-market properties goes well beyond any single database.
At Kaminsky Real Estate Group, we have developed a comprehensive 12-step off-market search process that I teach to our entire team.
Without detailing the entire program, our approach involves several types of outreach.
We communicate with past clients and prospective sellers already in our database.
We maintain relationships throughout the local brokerage community to identify owners who may be considering selling.
We conduct targeted telephone outreach, direct mail campaigns and personal contact with homeowners whose properties may match specific buyer requirements.
If you own a home in the South Bay, you've probably received some form of this type of communication at one time or another.
The difference is having a coordinated strategy aimed at finding properties that genuinely match a buyer's needs.
The important question isn't simply whether an agent has a private listing database.
It's whether that agent has the connections, experience and resources to create opportunities that don't already exist.
Does Buying Off-Market Mean You Get a Better Price?
Not necessarily.
In fact, it can work in either direction.
Sometimes a buyer pays a premium for the privilege of obtaining a property privately.
If the home is truly exceptional, the buyer may not want to risk waiting until the property is publicly marketed and potentially competing against several other purchasers.
For that buyer, certainty and getting the right property may matter more than obtaining the lowest price.
But there's another side.
Some sellers may receive less than they otherwise would have if they exposed their property to the broader marketplace.
If dozens of qualified buyers might compete for a desirable property, limiting access to only one or two buyers could mean leaving money on the table.
Whether a private transaction produces an advantage depends on the motivations of the buyer and seller, the uniqueness of the property, the quality of the marketing, and the experience of those negotiating the deal.
There isn't one universal answer.
When Competition Creates an Extraordinary Price
About two years ago, I sold a property in Manhattan Beach's Tree Section off-market for more than $14 million.
Two different buyers wanted the same home.
As a result, the transaction achieved what I considered an extraordinary price compared with what similar properties would otherwise command at that time.
That's an important principle in real estate.
Competition creates price pressure.
It doesn't matter whether the buyers accumulated their wealth from SpaceX, another technology company, a business sale, investments or something else.
If multiple qualified buyers strongly want the same property, their willingness to compete can push the sale price higher.
Conversely, a property that attracts only one interested buyer may not generate the same result.
That's why I caution sellers against assuming that off-market always means a premium.
The more important question is whether the right buyers know about the opportunity and whether genuine competition exists.
Why the South Bay Is Different From Other Luxury Markets
One of the reasons I believe the South Bay has such an interesting future is its limited housing supply.
On Oct. 25, 2026, I conducted searches for luxury homes priced above $10 million.
In the Beach Cities and Palos Verdes Peninsula, I found just 18 properties available for purchase.
I then searched a geographically similar-sized area covering Los Angeles, Beverly Hills and Bel Air.
That search produced 286 homes priced above $10 million.
These numbers represent snapshots from my property searches rather than a controlled statistical comparison. The areas differ in housing stock and property characteristics.
Nevertheless, the contrast is striking.
Consider it from the seller's perspective.
If you owned a luxury home and needed to sell it, wouldn't you rather compete against 18 available homes than 286?
I certainly would.
That doesn't mean every $10 million home in the South Bay has the same buyer pool or that a smaller inventory guarantees a higher sales price.
But supply matters.
And in the South Bay, our ability to create significant amounts of new luxury housing is extremely limited.
We can't simply open up enormous new residential subdivisions along the coastline.
Our communities are largely built out.
What Makes the South Bay So Desirable?
Over nearly four decades of selling real estate here, I've watched our market attract buyers for many different reasons.
Some come for the beach lifestyle and climate.
Others value the schools, established neighborhoods, community atmosphere, or proximity to major employers.
Convenient access to LAX and major transportation routes adds another advantage.
The Beach Cities and Palos Verdes Peninsula offer a combination of qualities that is difficult to reproduce in many other places.
And all of those advantages exist within a geography that has very little room for additional development.
This is why I believe limited inventory is one of our market's most important long-term characteristics.
People aren't simply purchasing a house.
They're purchasing access to a particular place and lifestyle.
What Does the SpaceX IPO Mean for Home Values?
It's important to separate what we're witnessing today from what might happen in the future.
We already know there are SpaceX-connected buyers actively searching for off-market properties.
We also know our luxury housing inventory is limited.
And we've seen examples of buyers who experienced significant liquidity events paying exceptional prices for homes they wanted.
What we don't know is precisely how the SpaceX IPO, and the liquidity that may follow it, might affect buyer demand over the next 12 to 24 months.
There are many variables.
Interest rates, the global economy, financial markets, energy prices, government policy and consumer confidence can all influence real estate decisions.
Not every person who experiences a liquidity event decides to purchase a larger home.
Some invest elsewhere, retain their existing residence or wait before making a major financial commitment.
But when new purchasing power enters an area with limited available housing, it's reasonable to consider the potential effects on prices and competition.
That is the larger Rocket Bay story we're continuing to follow.
What Should Buyers and Homeowners Take Away?
For buyers, the lesson is straightforward.
Don't assume that the homes advertised online represent every opportunity available in the South Bay.
If you have a highly specific wish list, you may need a strategy that reaches beyond the public market.
Finding the right agent, identifying the neighborhoods and properties that interest you, exploring opportunities before homes are built, and reaching out to homeowners who might consider selling can all be part of that strategy.
For homeowners, the lesson is equally important.
Our limited inventory may give desirable properties a competitive advantage, but not every unsolicited offer represents the best possible price.
If someone approaches you privately, consider what your property might command with broader market exposure.
There's a difference between receiving an attractive offer and achieving the best possible outcome.
Privacy, convenience and certainty have value, but so does competition.
The Bottom Line
I remain optimistic about the long-term appeal of South Bay real estate, particularly in communities where available land and luxury housing inventory are extremely limited.
That optimism isn't a prediction that prices will always rise. All real estate markets face economic cycles.
But when I look at the combination of limited supply, continuing demand and the possibility of additional wealth being created through companies like SpaceX, I believe we're witnessing a particularly interesting chapter in the South Bay's real estate story.
For some buyers, the biggest challenge won't be affording the home.
It will be finding it.
And for some homeowners, the next buyer for their property may be someone they never expected to hear from.
The best house for sale may not be for sale. But that doesn't mean it can't be bought.
Not every home draws a premium, and I'll always tell you honestly where yours stands. But if you've ever quietly thought, “I'm not selling my house. ...Unless someone meets my buy-it-now price,” the box below is for you.
“I’m not selling my house. ...Unless someone meets my buy-it-now price.”
Name your number. What’s yours? Tell Ed privately.
Sometimes an off-market buyer pays more than a home would likely bring on the open market, and sometimes that buyer doesn't. It depends on the property, the buyer and how much competition there is. If you've wondered what your home might draw, I'm happy to talk it through privately, with no pressure and no obligation to list.
Not every home draws a premium, and some sellers ask far more than any buyer will pay.
Sources and notes: Inventory counts are from Ed Kaminsky's CRMLS searches of homes for sale above $10 million on October 25, 2026, one covering the Beach Cities and Palos Verdes Peninsula (18 homes) and one covering a geographically similar-sized area of Los Angeles, Beverly Hills and Bel Air (286 homes); they are snapshots, not an audited statistic. The Tree Section and 700 block of the Strand sale figures are as reported by Ed Kaminsky. The Strand increase is $13.5 million minus $8.5 million, or $5 million, approximately 59% of the 2022 price. Premium estimates are Ed Kaminsky's professional opinion. SpaceX IPO: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. final prospectus, filed with the SEC, dated June 11, 2026. Nothing here is an appraisal or a value opinion for any specific property.
Photo credits: Rocket Bay cover art, Kaminsky Real Estate Group. Photographs: Pierson Davis. Headshot: Ed Kaminsky.
About the author
Ed Kaminsky has been selling South Bay real estate since 1987 and has closed more than $4 billion in transactions.
Ed Kaminsky | Kaminsky Real Estate Group | eXp Luxury
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Ed Kaminsky Kaminsky Real Estate Group · eXp Luxury
#1 Real Estate Agent in the South Bay · Top 15 in the Nation (RealTrends) · Over $4 Billion Sold